Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Happy New Year


Saddest Story of 2008

Man, just looking at this guy makes me want to puke. He "allegedly" bilked investors out of $50 billion. He stole it from widows, charities and even his best friends, what a creep.-Lou


Bernard Madoff Scandal
Investors lose $50 billion in alleged swindle





Treasury GMAC Bailout A Fraudulent "Kiting" Scheme?

This infusion of cash to GMAC should prevent it's failure. The theory is now that GMAC has the cash to make more auto loans more GM cars will be sold. GM has started advertising 0% loans (to qualified customers of course) with kited taxpayer money. So you and I are actually paying for people to go buy new GM cars, it's a brave new world-Lou

The Treasury had already allocated all the $350 billion that Congress authorized for the first half of the program. But even though the Treasury Department has not yet requested the second half of the money, officials said they could provide the financing to GMAC because they have not actually used all of the money allocated for recapitalizing banks.

Catch that? This sounds equivalent to writing $1,100 of checks on a checking account with $1,000 in it because only $900 of the checks have already been cashed. In the real world, this is called "check kiting," and it's illegal.

Read Artcle Here:
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/treasury-gmac-bailout-a-fraudulent-kiting-scheme

Holiday Season Weakest Since At Least 1970

Looks like the Grinch stole christmas this year. Although bad for retailers and the economy, it' kinda nice to see Americans being austere for a change. Frugality and austerity will be the key to surviving the rough economic times ahead-Lou

Holiday season weakest since at least 1970

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. recession, heavy discounting by retailers and a nasty mix of winter weather in the days before Christmas combined to produce the worst holiday season since at least 1970, the International Council of Shopping Centers said on Tuesday. Sales at U.S. chain stores fell 1.8 percent in the week ending December 27 compared with the previous year, while sales fell 1.5 percent compared with the prior week, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales index.

US home prices plunge record 18.0 pct in Oct -S&P

There will be no bottom to the financial crisis until housing prices stop dropping. Look for bold moves by the new government to stem foreclosures and get mortgage rates down-Lou

US home prices plunge record 18.0 pct in Oct

US home prices plunge record 18.0 pct in Oct NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Prices of U.S. single-family homes in October plunged a record 18.0 percent from a year earlier, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller

Home Price Indices released on Tuesday that indicated a U.S. housing market in the throes of a deep recession. The composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.2 percent in October from September.

The price drops, both on a year-over-year and month-over-month basis, came in worse than expectations based on a Reuters survey of economists. S&P said its composite index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 2.1 percent in October from September for a 19.1 percent year-over-year drop, also a record.

"The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March, 2004 levels." David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's, said in a statement.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Financial Funnies


Thomas Jefferson Wisdom

Thomas Jefferson:

"This country is headed toward a single and splendid government of an aristocracy founded on banking institutions and monied corporations, and if this tendency continues it will be the end of freedom and democracy; the few will be ruling and riding over the plundered plowman and the beggar."

And now it has happened-Lou

GM lending unit gets $5 billion in government funds

They should change their name to Government Motors. We have become a bailout nation, we will pay a hefty price for all these bailouts-Lou

GM lending unit gets $5 billion in government funds

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - GMAC Financial Services, the lending unit of General Motors Corp., said late Monday it has received $5 billion in funds from the $700 billion U.S. government bailout program in a move designed to help the struggling automaker sell new cars and trucks.

In addition, the Treasury Department said it has agreed to lend up to $1 billion to General Motors so it can take part in a transaction that will help GMAC raise additional needed capital.

The loan to GM comes in addition to the $17.4 billion in federal assistance for domestic carmakers announced by the government earlier this month. GM and Chrysler appealed to the government for aid in restructuring earlier this year after suffering from plummeting sales that pushed them to the brink of bankruptcy.

Read Article Here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/GMs-lending-unit-gets-5/story.aspx?guid=%7B0FC5CFAB%2DB069%2D4EF7%2D8E86%2DB7B0DC22C05D%7D#comments

Monday, December 29, 2008

Financial Funnies



2009 Financial & Economic Forecast Radio Program Available

My 2009 Financial & Economic Forecast edition of the "The Financial Physician" radio program is available for download. Part one contains 2009 Forecasts-Lou

http://wobmam.com/personalities_lou_scatigna.html

Lehman bankruptcy filing wiped out billions: report

The decision by the Federal Reserve and US Government to let Lehman fail was a huge mistake, history will point to Lehman's failure as the major event that escalated the financial crisis to a financial panic-Lou

Reuters: Lehman bankruptcy filing wiped out billions

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's emergency bankruptcy filing wiped out as much as $75 billion of potential value for creditors, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing an analysis by the bank's restructuring advisers.

A more planned and orderly filing would have allowed Lehman to sell some assets outside of bankruptcy court protection and would have given it time to unwind derivatives positions, according to the analysis by Alvarez & Marsal.

The Journal said it was too early to say how much money Lehman creditors would recover; it said unsecured creditors have asserted they are owed $200 billion.

Read Article Here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081229/business_us_lehman_bankruptcy.html

State Lotteries Show Big Declines

This puts a smile on my face. Lotteries are essential a tax on idiocy, a sure way lose money (exception: 1 in 25 million). Plus, I hate waiting in line to buy wine when the clerk is servicing the gamblers, oops lottery players. I know, you may say the revenue to the state is used for education and senior services, but seducing mainly low income people to gamble away their hard earned money (or state assistance) is just not moral-Lou

State Lotteries Show Big Declines
With Rare Drop in Sales, a Formerly Recession-Proof Revenue Stream Slows

By LESLIE EATON

The sour economy is striking the one source of government financing that had been widely regarded as recession-proof: lotteries.

Education programs are a common beneficiary of lottery sales, which fell 2% in the third quarter from a year ago.

Across the U.S., many state lotteries are reporting hefty declines, with ticket sales down nearly 10% in California and more than 4% in Texas over the past few months.

Read Article Here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123024947406734259.html

Holiday Retail Sales Terrible

I saw this graph in The Wall Street Journal. Not a pretty picture-Lou




Sunday, December 28, 2008

My 2008 Financial Year in Review and 2009 Financial & Economic Forecast Reports Available

Dear Readers

I have made my 2008 Financial Year In Review and 2009 Financial & Economic Forecast Reports available for your reading pleasure.

Just scroll down a bit you will find the linls in the blue sidebar on the right.

Enjoy

Lou

Welcome to The Financial Physician Blog

Dear Readers

I want to take this opportunity to welcome you to my new Blog. My goal is to make this site a resource to guide you through the difficult financial times that lie ahead.

Most Americans have no idea how bad the economy really is. Banks are not lending, consumers are not spending, homes and stocks are falling in value and unemployment is rising.

In an effort to stave off a deflationary depression, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a hyper-inflationary path. Zero interest rates coupled with Quantatative Easing (printing money like mad) will result in a drastic decline in the US currency followed by inflation morphing into hyper-inflation.

Many will see the real value of their savings decline and their standard of living contract. My fear is that since most Americans have not experienced hard economic times, we will not be prepared or able to adapt. Unfortunately, crime will be a growing problem as people become more desparate.

My goal is to make this site the place to go to get the real financial and global information, not that of the mainstream media but important information you can use to protect your wealth and your family.

The site will be updated multiple times each day with my commentary on financial issues as well as the news of the day. News articles that I feel will benefit my readers will be excerpted and linked.

My homepage http://www.thefinancialphysician.com/ has links to other resources including my weekly radio program, "The Financial Physician", Be sure to listen every week, it's archived monday-monday or could be listened to live 11am-12 EST Sundays at http://www.wobmam.com/.

The homepage will (in time) also give you access to excerpts from the book I'm writing "The Financial Physician: How to Cure Your Money Problems and Boost Your Financial Health".
The website also hosts my reality television Pilot, "The Financial Physician: Operation Rescue" We are currently marketing the show to a number of networks, check it out it's great feel-good TV.

I will periodically comment on the news and financial markets through video posted on the website.

I welcome your comments and emails at Lscatigna@leighbaldwin.com Make sure you bookmark this site and share with friends and family by forwarding this link to your contacts.

I think you will find this site informative, honest and even sometimes entertaining. The Financial Physician Blog is here to guide you through what may be very challenging times ahead.

Again thanks for reading.

Lou

By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans

This article illustrates how incredible stupidity and greed got us in this mess-Lou


By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans

By PETER S. GOODMAN and GRETCHEN MORGENSON

“We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.”
— Kerry K. Killinger, chief executive of Washington Mutual, 2003

SAN DIEGO — As a supervisor at a Washington Mutual mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons was accustomed to seeing baby sitters claiming salaries worthy of college presidents, and schoolteachers with incomes rivaling stockbrokers’. He rarely questioned them. A real estate frenzy was under way and WaMu, as his bank was known, was all about saying yes.

Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer.

Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.

Read Article Here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html?ref=business&pagewanted=print

Saturday, December 27, 2008

2008 Financial Humor

Best collection of financial jokes from 2008, let's stop crying and laugh for a while-Lou

President Bush said that he is saddened to hear about the demise of Lehman Brothers. His thoughts at this time go out to their mother as losing one son is hard but losing two is a tragedy.

P/E RATIO – The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing

BROKER – What my broker has made me

What’s the definition of optimism?An Investment Banker ironing five shirts on a Sunday evening.

Even when you put Bernanke on “mute”, the market still goes down.

The government is going to be handing out rebate checks. We’re like a bad car dealership now in this country, handing out the rebate checks. They’re trying to restore confidence in the U.S. economy. The bad news – half the people want the money in euros, the other half want it in pesos. – Jay Leno

Read Artcle Here:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2008/12/24/jokes.aspx

At least 140 killed as Israel launches air strikes in Gaza Strip

The world is an unstable place, it will be a challenging year for Israel-Lou

At least 140 killed as Israel launches air strikes in Gaza Strip

At least 140 people were killed and 200 wounded in Israeli air strikes on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip today.

Militants in the Gaza Strip fired rockets into southern Israel, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The Israeli army had put communities near the border on alert.

Israel's air force fired about 30 missiles at targets in the Gaza Strip, and a police spokesman said the air strikes destroyed most of the police headquarters in the region.

Police chief Tawfiq Jabber is reported to be among the dead. The Israeli military confirmed they had conducted strikes, saying they targeted "terrorist infrastructure". The defence force said in a statement that it would continue, expand and intensify its operations "as much as required".


Read Article Here:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/1227/breaking1.htm

Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet

Soon the world will lose confidence in the U.S. Dollar, looks like it's already starting. 2009 may be the year of the dollar crisis, lets's hope not.-Lou

Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan should write-off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said
Akio Mikuni, president of credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co.

The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes “drastic measures” to help bail out the U.S. economy, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.

Read Article Here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aFgHlh.Dn4Lc&refer=news

Friday, December 26, 2008

US new jobless claims surge to 26-year high

The employment situation is deteriorating rapidly. We need to see this number below 300,000 before we can say the economy has bottomed-Lou

US new jobless claims surge to 26-year high

US new jobless claims surge to 26-year high WASHINGTON, Dec 24 (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped by 30,000 to a 26-year peak last week, government data on Wednesday showed, as the country's year-long recession continued to chill the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 586,000 in the week ended Dec 20 from a revised 556,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. It was the highest since the week ending Nov. 27, 1982. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 560,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 554,000 the week before. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the data and no noticeable impact from severe winter weather in northern parts of the country.

‘Surgical strikes’ mean war, senators warn India

In my 2009 Economic & Financial Market Forecast, I wrote "Pakistan remains the number one threat to international security". It looks like war between the two nuclear armed countries is inevitable. The world does not need this type of conflict right now.-Lou


Surgical strikes’ mean war, senators warn India

ISLAMABAD: The Senate on Wednesday ruled out the possibility of allowing India ‘surgical strikes’ in saying such attacks would be taken as aggression. “Any violation of Pakistani territory would be considered as war and would be repulsed with full force,” Leader of the House Raza Rabbani said while winding up a debate on national security in the Upper House. He rejected reports that US Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen had asked Pakistan not to retaliate in case of an Indian strike. “We were neither conveyed such a message by Mullen nor are we ready to accept such advice,” Rabbani said. He dismissed reports of differences between the military and civilian leadership. Rabbani offered India co-operation in the Mumbai probe but said Pakistani citizens would not be handed over to India.

Read article here:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008\12\25\story_25-12-2008_pg1_2

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Welcome to The Financial Physician Blog

Dear Readers

I want to take this opportunity to welcome you to my new Blog. My goal is to make this site a resource to guide you through the difficult financial times that lie ahead.

Most Americans have no idea how bad the economy really is. Banks are not lending, consumers are not spending, homes and stocks are falling in value and unemployment is rising.

In an effort to stave off a deflationary depression, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a hyper-inflationary path. Zero interest rates coupled with Quantatative Easing (printing money like mad) will result in a drastic decline in the US currency followed by inflation morphing into hyper-inflation.

Many will see the real value of their savings decline and their standard of living contract. My fear is that since most Americans have not experienced hard economic times, we will not be prepared or able to adapt. Unfortunately, crime will be a growing problem as people become more desparate.

My goal is to make this site the place to go to get the real financial and global information, not that of the mainstream media but important information you can use to protect your wealth and your family.

The site will be updated multiple times each day with my commentary on financial issues as well as the news of the day. News articles that I feel will benefit my readers will be excerpted and linked.


My homepage http://www.thefinancialphysician.com/ has links to other resources including my weekly radio program, "The Financial Physician", Be sure to listen every week, it's archived monday-monday or could be listened to live 11am-12 EST Sundays at http://www.wobmam.com/.

The homepage will (in time) also give you access to excerpts from the book I'm writing "The Financial Physician: How to Cure Your Money Problems and Boost Your Financial Health".

The website also hosts my reality television Pilot, "The Financial Physician: Operation Rescue" We are currently marketing the show to a number of networks, check it out it's great feel-good TV.

I will periodically comment on the news and financial markets through video posted on the website.

I welcome your comments and emails at scatigna@hotmail.comMake sure you bookmark this site and share with friends and family by forwarding this link to your contacts.

I think you will find this site informative, honest and even sometimes entertaining. The Financial Physician Blog is here to guide you through what may be very challenging times ahead.

Again thanks for reading.

Lou

Iceland ‘Like Chernobyl’ as Meltdown Shows Anger Can Boil Over


It can happen here-Lou


By Ben Holland
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- It was the week before Christmas in Reykjavik, and all through the town Eva Hauksdottir led a band of 60 whistle-blowing, pan-banging, shouting demonstrators.
“Pay your own debts,” they yelled as they visited one bank office after another in Iceland’s capital. “Don’t make the children pay.”
When she isn’t leading one of the almost daily acts of protest in this land devastated by the global financial meltdown, Hauksdottir sells good luck charms made from the claws of ptarmigans, a local bird, and voodoo dolls in the form of bankers. She says she expects to lose her home, worth less than when she bought it two years ago, after the amount she owes jumped more than 20 percent.
Rest of article:

Madoff SEC Whistleblower Report From 2005

Wow, this report lists 29 Red Flags (detailed) warning the SEC that Madoff was a fraud. I would be pretty upset if I lost my life savings with this guy and the SEC was warned about him in a 19 page submission in 2005. -Lou

Read the submission here:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/iehi-img-mli/files/Madoff_SECdocs_20081217.pdf

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

U.S. Military Preparing for Domestic Disturbances‏

One of my greatest fears is that our society could break down faster than anyone may think possible, let's hope this is never needed.-Lou


U.S. Military Preparing for Domestic Disturbances
Tuesday, December 23, 2008 1:14 PMBy: Jim Meyers, Newsmax.com

A new report from the U.S. Army War College discusses the use of American troops to quell civil unrest brought about by a worsening economic crisis.

The report from the War College’s Strategic Studies Institute warns that the U.S. military must prepare for a “violent, strategic dislocation inside the United States” that could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse” or “loss of functioning political and legal order.”

Read Article Here:

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/military_domestic_use/2008/12/23/164765.html?s=al&promo_code=763E-1

INCREDIBLE and OUTRAGEOUS! AMERICAN EXPRESS GETTING BAILED OUT! 3.39 BILLION! 2 PAGE APPLICATION ENCLOSED!

We have witnessed the largest transfer of wealth in history, God help us all-Lou

INCREDIBLE and OUTRAGEOUS! AMERICAN EXPRESS GETTING BAILED OUT! 3.39 BILLION! 2 PAGE APPLICATION ENCLOSED!

Times of India24 Dec 2008, 0024 hrs IST, APNEW YORK: American Express Co. said on Tuesday it received preliminary approval to obtain $3.39 billion in capital as part of the government's $700 billion bank investment program. Primarily a credit card lender, American Express changed its structure to become a bank holding company last month. The change in status allows American Express to tap a wide array of government funding and lending programs, including the bank investment program. Other major financial firms have been becoming bank holding companies to access federal lending programs, such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and CIT Group Inc.

Read Rest of artcle Here: http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2008/12/incredible-american-express-getting.html



See American Express's Application Here: http://www.sba.gov/idc/groups/public/documents/sba_homepage/guideline_tarp_capitalpurchase.pdf

2008 S&P 500 Index



click to enlarge chart

The Standard & Poors 500 Index this year, looks like another leg down awaits us

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Oil Hits New Low

click to englarge chart
Check out this chart of USO an Oil ETF, What a ride!-Lou






U.S. Home Resales Fall; Prices Drop by Record 13.2%

Real Estate has a long way to go before it bottoms-Lou


By Shobhana Chandra
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales prices for existing U.S. homes fell the most on record in November, tearing a deeper hole into households’ already tattered finances.
The median resale price fell 13 percent from a year before, to $181,300, “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression,” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in Washington. Sales slid to an annual rate of 4.49 million, lower than forecast.
Sliding property values mean more Americans will be under water on their mortgages, likely leading to a further increase in already record foreclosure rates. Along with the wealth destruction from slumping stock portfolios, they also undermine consumers’ purchasing power.
“November sales just collapsed,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “Price declines are accelerating. As bad as this is, it’s going to be considerably worse in a month’s time.”



Read More: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQa4tcyZZ_Ag&refer=home

Fund manager tied to Madoff loss found dead: reports

There is a special place in Hell for Bernard Madoff-Lou



SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, a fund manager who reportedly lost large sums in Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme, was found dead in a New York office building, according to media reports Tuesday. A New York City Medical Examiner spokeswoman told Reuters that de la Villehuchet, 65, was pronounced dead at 8 am Eastern, and that the cause of death was not known. He co-founded Access International Advisors LLC, which specializes in managing hedged and structured-investment portfolios

Market Will Be Rocky In 2009

If you thought 2008 was wild, you ain't seen nothing yet. Expect continued volatility as the market reacts to the daily financial bombshells corporate America will be chucking at investors next year. I expect the Dow to bottom at about 6500 the first half of 2009.

There may be an historic rally during the second half of 2009 as inflation pressures hit everything from energy and food as well as stock prices.

I look for the Dow to close the year HIGHER than it started it and close above 9000. The ride will not be for the faint of heart, most investors mettle will be truly tested.