Saturday, May 9, 2009

Unemployment Rate Jumps to 8.9%


Over a half a million Americans lost their jobs in April and the unemployment rate soared from 8.5% to 8.9%. My 2009 financial forecast report (available on righthand sidebar) stated that we would hit 9% unemployment in 2009. Looks like my forecast is way too low. The unemployment rate appears to be heading for at least 11% this year. Stock market cheered the news, expecting over 600,000 job losses. The market has been rallying on "less worse news" still bad but less bad. When you look into the numbers, the job situation looks bleaker than reported. The government added 71,000 jobs. Without government hiring (mainly for the census) job losses would have been over 600,000. Then we have to look at the government's fanatasy, the Birth/Death Model. These are estimates the Labor Dept. makes about small businesses being created and the hiring that goes with it. They said that 226,000 jobs were created by new businesses. Let's look at the details: Construction created 38,000 (don't make me laugh), Hospitality and Leisure (hotels, casinos) added a whopping 76,000 jobs (have you been tgo a casino lately, it's a morgue), oh I like this one , Professional Services created 65,000 jobs. How can anyone with half a brain trust the economic numbers coming out of Washington? But the real story in employment is that those without jobs can't find ANY reasonable employment. Many have to settle for low paying, part time work. Until we see jobs being created, not lost, this economy will not turn around.-Lou

U.S. payrolls fall by 539,000
U.S. payrolls fall by 539,000 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut a smaller-than-expected 539,000 jobs in April, the smallest amount since October, according to government data on Friday that hinted at some improvement in the labor market and the recession-hit economy.
However, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate soared to 8.9 percent, the highest since September 1983. March's payrolls figure was revised to show a decline of 699,000, compared with a previously reported drop of 663,000. Job losses in February were bumped up to 681,000 from the previously estimated 651,000.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast non-farm payrolls dropping 590,000 in April. The unemployment rate had been forecast to rise to 8.9 percent from 8.5 percent in March. The report showed job losses across almost all sectors, although at a less steep pace than in the previous months.
The government and education and health services sectors added jobs. The manufacturing sector lost 149,000 jobs in April, after shedding 167,000 the prior month. Construction industries cut 110,000 jobs after losing 135,000 in March. The service-providing industry slashed 269,000 positions after eliminating 381,000 in March. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has lost 5.7 million jobs, the department said.

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