Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Is Bernanke Creating a Stock Market Bubble?

This historic move in the stock market may be the result of the Fed flushing the markets with liquidity. The value of stocks are up $2.7 trillion but only $400 billion has exited money market funds, the usual source of stock market liquidity. Could the $2.3 trillion difference be the Fed's quantatative easing (money printing)? I believe it is-Lou

Here's a quote from the article: "This is the most speculative momentum-driven equity market since the early 1930s," Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients Monday

Stocks: The latest Fed bubble
Are the government programs supporting the financial sector reinflating global stock markets even as economies stumble?


NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The Federal Reserve has spent the past year cleaning up after a housing bubble it helped create. But along the way it may have pumped up another bubble, this time in stocks.

To head off the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the central bank has slashed interest rates while funneling money to banks.

The Fed has mostly won praise for its efforts. The pace of job losses has slowed, and there has been a modest recovery in output.

At the same time, stocks have bounced back with startling speed. Since global markets hit their bottom in March, the S&P 500 has jumped 51% -- even as the outlook for economic recovery remains dim.

"This is the most speculative momentum-driven equity market since the early 1930s," Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients Monday.

Of course, stocks have rallied in part because investors perceive the worst-case scenario -- a 1930s-style Depression -- is off the table. And while the gains have been remarkable, they come after an even bigger decline. The S&P is still down 16% since Lehman Brothers collapsed in September.

But while most people take the rise in stocks as a hopeful sign for the economy, some see evidence that the Fed has been financing a speculative mania that could end in another damaging rout.

Recent weeks have brought huge rallies in some of the lowest-quality stocks -- including firms such as AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are being propped up by the government and are unlikely to return to health any time soon.

What's more, this year has brought an 80% surge in emerging market stocks, while the dollar has posted a 10% decline since March. A declining dollar and surging emerging markets were the hallmarks of the credit-fueled bull run earlier this decade.

"We have put the band back together on a lot of this," said Howard Simons, a strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago. "That couldn't have happened without liquidity."

Though liquidity is admittedly a nebulous concept, there's no question that central bankers around the globe have poured huge amounts of money into the markets to ease the financial crisis. Given free money, investors' appetite for risk shoots higher and they gobble up stocks.

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