This report is a must read. I like David Rosenberg, when other big Wall St firms were saying we were in a "Goldilocks" economy he was warning of coming recession.-Lou
Merrill Lynch's chief economist for North America, David Rosenberg, writes in an economic commentary entitled "Some Inconvenient Truths" that we are probably already in a depression:
We are likely enduring a depression today. As for depressions, there is no official definition, except to say that they have existed in the past. There were no fewer than four in the nineteenth century, one in the twentieth century, and we are very likely enduring another one today.
As I have previously written, just like it took many months for the officials and talking heads to admit that we were in a recession - and in fact had been for a long time - it will take a while before the government admits that we are already in a depression.
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Lou,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the report. Great facts embedded there but I disagree completely w/ Rosenberg's conclusion that people should continue towards LT gov debt. Inflation is going to reemerge at some point. There's really not much to debate. When it does, it seems it'll become a point of fine timing to head for the doors on 20 yr+ treasuries: another bubble. Like everybody else and their brother, I became a fan of TBT late last yr. I thought this an interesting take on things but the conclusions a little drastic:
http://mises.org/story/3302
Thank you again,
VR,
Fred H.
I too, disagree with Mr. Rosenberg on this. Inflation will return and treasury bonds will react as they always do. I have also traded TBT, an excellent way to short the long maturity treasury bonds. PST works the same with 10-20yr maturities.
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