Tomorrow is the big June payroll report from the Labor Department. I find the ADP report to be more accurate since it comes from actual payroll records. The Labor Deptartment fudges the number by creating jobs out of thin air using their Birth/Death Model. The BD model estimates (fabricates) how many new jobs are created from newly formed businesses. In May they said new business created over 200,000 new jobs (44,000 in construction), if you believe that you will also believe that there are "green shoots" of economic recover popping up all over. Look for the BLS to report that 375,000-400,000 jobs were lost in June and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7%. The economy will not begin to recover until this number falls below 200,000 jobs lost per month and that will not happen any time soon.-Lou
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut Payrolls by 473,000
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June, according to a private report today, showing the labor market will be slow to improve even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.
The 473,000 drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge followed a revised reduction of 485,000 workers in May that was smaller than previously estimated.
Job losses may mount as the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC ripple through manufacturing. Increased firings threaten to further restrain consumer spending at a time when the world’s largest economy is showing signs of stabilizing.
“This is a weak number,”
Economists forecast the ADP report would show a decline of 395,000 jobs, according to the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from decreases of 280,000 to 532,000.
A Labor Department report tomorrow may show employers cut 363,000 workers from payrolls in June and
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