Friday, September 4, 2009

Unemployment Rate Hits 7.7%

While non-farm payrolls report shows that "only" 216,000 were lost in August, the unemployment rate rose to a 26 year high of 9.7%. If we take into account "discouraged" workers the unemployment rate is over 17%.

Please someone explain to me how we can have an average of 560,000 filing first time claims for unemployment each WEEK and only lose 216,000 jobs for the month. I have never been able to figure that one out. The only way that works if there were 2,024,000 new jobs created to offset the ones lost.

Ok now let's take a look at the Birth/Death model of phantom jobs created by new businesses. How does the BLS know this? They just think so, that's all.

Hmmm let's take a look shall we?

15,000 new jobs in construction, yea right
26,000 professional services
24,000 leisure and hospitality

A total of 118,000 jobs were created by new business according to the BLS. Some say that BLS stands for Bureau of Labor Statistics, I think it stands for bullshit.-Lou

U.S. unemployment rate jumps to 26-year high of 9.7%

Nonfarm payrolls fall 216,000 in August, 20th consecutive monthly decline

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.7% in August as nonfarm payrolls fell by 216,000, the 20th consecutive monthly decline, the Labor Department estimated Friday.

U.S. payrolls have dropped by 6.9 million to a total of 131.2 million since the recession began in December 2007, the government data showed. Unemployment has increased by 7.4 million during the recession to stand at 14.9 million.

The 216,000 decline in payrolls was close to market expectations of a 233,000 drop, but the unemployment rate rose higher than the 9.5% level expected. The unemployment rate was 9.4% in July.

It was the smallest decline in payrolls since August 2008.

Payroll losses have moderated in most industries in the past two months after severe declines earlier in the year. In the past three months, payroll losses have averaged 318,000 per month, compared with 491,000 in the previous three-month period.

Payrolls declined an upwardly revised 276,000 in July. In June and July, payroll losses were revised up by 49,000.

Details of the August report were generally weak, however.


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1 comment:

  1. Yeah !! But the market LOVES it !! Up (another) 100. I guess we all need to short it. But where ? At 10000 ? 11000 ? 15000 ? 23000 ? more ? 50000 perhaps ? Its soooooooooooooooo discouraging to be short. This market NEVER goes down, ever !! Its a one way street.

    ReplyDelete